The liquor sector, known as the best track, has recently fallen, and the liquor index has fallen by more than 28% during the year.
On July 29, the liquor plate continued to weaken. As of the close of trading, today's edge fell more than 5%, the company's relevant people responded that there was no anomaly within the company, the situation in the liquor industry is similar, but the company's share price fell sharply. Overall, the company's decline in the industry this year is not very large.
In addition, Luzhou Laojiao, Gujing Gong wine, Yingjia Gong wine and Shanxi Fenjiu fell 2.77%, 2.64%, 2.38% and 2.03%, respectively. Kweichow Moutai, Yanghe Shares, Wuliangye also fell more than 1%.
The liquor sector fell more than 28 percent for the year. The recent disclosure of the fund's second quarterly report revealed that many well-known fund managers significantly reduced their holdings of liquor stocks, which exacerbated the market's pessimism about liquor stocks. However, some fund managers believe that liquor stocks have fallen out of value and choose to continue to stick to or re-favor liquor stocks.
Many liquor stocks hit a new low stage
Kweichow Moutai closed at 1,398.02 yuan/share, with its stock price falling below 1,400 yuan, a new low since November 2022. Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, Gujin Gong wine latest share prices have hit a new low stage.
It is worth noting that the liquor index has fallen more than 28% during the year, which is one of the worst performing sectors this year. Liquor stock performance during the year, Huangtai liquor stock price halved during the year, Drunkard wine, Shide wine industry fell more than 40% during the year, Shui Jing Fang, golden seed wine, the year fell more than 30%. Kweichow Moutai, known as the king of stocks, saw its share price fall by 17% during the year, and among the hundreds of billions of liquor stocks, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao and Yanghe shares fell by more than 20% during the year.
The liquor sector was once the most popular A-share fund and really brought investors more generous returns, in the eight years from 2014 to 2021, 7 years to achieve positive returns. The liquor sector was once praised by investors as the "long slope and thick snow track".
However, the flower is not a hundred days red, the liquor plate has begun to shake and adjust since the end of 2021, and since February 2023, the liquor plate has accelerated its decline, and it has fallen continuously.
Taking Kweichow Moutai as an example, in June this year, Moutai suffered the biggest price diving crisis in recent years, which also triggered a sharp fall in the share prices of liquor stocks such as Kweichow Moutai. Analyze the reasons behind it, first, the liquor industry is in the weak cycle of adjustment, the weak consumption environment combined with the disorderly expansion of the industry capacity in the past few years, leading to changes in the relationship between supply and demand, liquor prices under pressure; Second, uncertainties in the global economic situation and changes in the domestic economic environment may affect investor sentiment and market expectations, thus affecting future expectations; The third is the regulation policy adjustment and tax policy change of the government on the wine market. Fourth, the competitive pattern has changed, and the liquor brands are competing for market share, increasing the pressure of market competition between each other. Although some liquor companies have introduced some price support policies, they have failed to reverse the pessimistic expectations of liquor stocks.
Guotai Junan Securities analysis, compared with the last round of the cycle, this round of liquor trough period accompanied by industry concentration, so the performance of listed companies at the level of small fluctuations, but due to the large asset price bubble in the early stage, individual stocks generally suffered valuation. Most of the company's share price decline close to or more than the previous round of maximum withdrawal, horizontal comparison, only some of the strong growth of regional wine stock price range volatility, the decline is relatively small.
After several rounds of adjustments, the total market value of the liquor sector fell from 6.3 trillion yuan to the latest 3.08 trillion yuan, and the overall size of the sector shrank by half.
Fund overall reduction of liquor
When the liquor stock price is under pressure, fund managers have temporarily put down their faith in liquor stocks and continue to reduce their holdings of liquor stocks.
Recently, the disclosure of the second quarterly report of the public fund came to an end, and the data show that the liquor stock has been frequently reduced by the public fund, and the liquor stock holdings of the top ten heavy stocks of the public fund have declined significantly compared with the first quarter.
According to the statistics of Galaxy Securities, the proportion of heavy liquor stocks in public funds fell back to the level of 2018, and the proportion of heavy liquor shares in public funds showed a fluctuating downward trend after reaching a historical high of 15.1% at the end of 2020, and the shareholding ratio data fell to 9.9% at the end of the second quarter of this year, down 2.6 percentage points from the previous quarter.
As of the end of the second quarter, 1,264 public funds held a total of 80,759,200 shares of Kweichow Moutai, with a total market value of 118.5 billion yuan, and the number of fund products holding Kweichow Moutai decreased by 255 compared with 1,519 at the end of the first quarter, and the number of shares held decreased by 6.04 million shares.
587 funds holding Wuliangye, the number of fund holdings decreased by 36.9 million shares, the latest total holding 369 million shares. The number of shares held by the fund in Luzhou Laojiao fell by 35.72 million shares, and the number of shares held by the fund in Shanxi Fenjiu fell by 16.07 million shares. In addition, ancient and modern tribute wine, this world, Yingjia tribute wine, etc. have been reduced by public funds. For a long time, Luzhou Laojiao has been reduced by the fund for three consecutive quarters, and Yanghe shares have been reduced by public offering funds for nine consecutive quarters.
It is worth noting that as some fund managers have reduced their interest in liquor stocks, Kweichow Moutai has also ceded the throne of the number one heavy position of active equity funds and been replaced by Ningde Times.
Some well-known fund managers such as Xiao Nan, Lao Jienan, Jiao Wei, Li Xiaoxing, Zhu Shaoxing to reduce the liquor stocks, but also intensified the market's pessimistic sentiment on the liquor sector.
According to the second quarterly report of the fund, Kweichow Moutai withdrew from the top ten heavy stocks of Xiao Nan's Yi Fang Da high-quality strict selection for three years, Jiao Wei's Yinhua Rich theme mix, Luo Jie Nan's Hui Tianfu Value Selection, and Li Xiaoxing's Yinhua Xinjia Fund.
Jiao Wei, fund manager of Yinhua Fund, believes that China is at the threshold of a great transformation of the new economy, and the consumption upgrading industry represented by high-end liquor is facing external and own challenges in its business model. The higher the gross profit margin and pricing power in the past, the more vulnerable to a new round of economic model shocks and questions. In this context, possible valuation adjustments precede earnings themselves.
There are still fund managers holding out
Although Baijiu stocks were reduced by the fund as a whole in the second quarter, some well-known fund managers chose to stick to or re-attach importance to the investment value of baijiu stocks. Such as Yi Fang da fund Zhang Kun choose to continue to stick to liquor stocks, Yi Fang Da fund Zhang Qinghua, Zhongtai asset management Tian Yu choose to increase their liquor stocks.
Yi Fang Da fund manager Zhang Kun chose to continue to stick to liquor. As of the end of the second quarter, the nearly 40 billion yuan scale of the Yi Fang Da Blue Chip selected to hold Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Yanghe shares remained unchanged, while a small increase in Shanxi Fenjiu.
Zhang Kun said that considering the proportion of residents' consumption in the economy, it is still one of the most promising long-term riches in the stock market due to the investment opportunities brought by the better and better living standards of the people brought by economic development. The market is currently trading some good companies at valuations (P/E, market cap/free cash flow) that can be accounted for if taken private because of pessimistic expectations. The most important thing at this moment is patience, and the long-term return expectations of high-quality companies are very impressive.
Tian Yu's Zhongtai Kaiyang Value Preferred Mixed Fund chose to increase its holdings in the second quarter, and Kweichow Moutai entered the fund's top ten heavy stocks for the first time.
He believes that in the short term, there is a certain possibility that the price of liquor products will continue to decline. In the process of decline, the selling of channel inventory and the fluctuation of off-season demand will affect product prices. But from a value perspective, these may not matter. The factors that can determine the long-term profitability of high-end liquor enterprises and then affect the value of enterprises are not short-term prices, but the business model and scarcity of high-end liquor. As long as these two points are not broken, the moat of high-end liquor is difficult to break.